The availability heuristic is judging the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which examples of the event come to mind.—Updated on 2024-02-23 11:04:29—Group:Public
Additionally, I found an action-plan to fighting this missing (both here and in “we change our minds less often than we think”.) My personal advice is to use our motivation to combat it in the following way: notice whenever we form a belief and ask ourselves: am I generalizing a limited-set of examples that come into mind from memories and past experiences? am I falling to the availability heuristic? When you catch yourself, like I now do daily, rate how important the conclusion is, and if so - avoid reaching it through this heuristic (and choose deliberate, rational analysis instead.) If not, you may reach it using this generalization as long as you label that belief as non-trustworthy.I believe that labeling your beliefs with trust-levels could be a very productive approach; when, in the future, you rely on a previous belief, you can incorporate the trust-level you have in that belief into play and consider if you may or may not trust it towards your current goal.—Updated on 2024-02-23 11:14:42—Group:Public
Annotation: This is crucial! PDC “confirmation bias” should be updated to be more central around something generalizable that includes confirmation bias, availability bias, etc. while maintaining a trust-level that can propagate upstream. Bayes!
#to-process
The availability heuristic is judging the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which examples of the event come to mind.—Updated on 2024-02-23 11:04:29
Additionally, I found an action-plan to fighting this missing (both here and in “we change our minds less often than we think”.) My personal advice is to use our motivation to combat it in the following way: notice whenever we form a belief and ask ourselves: am I generalizing a limited-set of examples that come into mind from memories and past experiences? am I falling to the availability heuristic? When you catch yourself, like I now do daily, rate how important the conclusion is, and if so - avoid reaching it through this heuristic (and choose deliberate, rational analysis instead.) If not, you may reach it using this generalization as long as you label that belief as non-trustworthy.I believe that labeling your beliefs with trust-levels could be a very productive approach; when, in the future, you rely on a previous belief, you can incorporate the trust-level you have in that belief into play and consider if you may or may not trust it towards your current goal.—Updated on 2024-02-23 11:14:42
This is crucial! PDC “confirmation bias” should be updated to be more central around something generalizable that includes confirmation bias, availability bias, etc. while maintaining a trust-level that can propagate upstream. Bayes!