Planning Fallacy - LessWrong 2.0

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  • Asking subjects for their predictions based on realistic “best guess” scenarios; andAsking subjects for their hoped-for “best case” scenarios …… produced indistinguishable results.5—Updated on 2024-04-03 15:14:10
  • The outside view is when you deliberately avoid thinking about the special, unique features of this project, and just ask how long it took to finish broadly similar projects in the past.—Updated on 2024-04-03 15:18:28
    • This is finding an objective measurement to base predictions.
  • A quick point: “et” is a complete Latin word meaning “and”. Just like “and”, it doesn’t need a period after it, as it is not an abbreviation. Thus, Buehler et. al. (2002)should be changed to Buehler et al. (2002)—Updated on 2024-04-03 15:23:30 #to-process

to-process

  • Asking subjects for their predictions based on realistic “best guess” scenarios; andAsking subjects for their hoped-for “best case” scenarios …… produced indistinguishable results.5—Updated on 2024-04-03 15:14:10
  • The outside view is when you deliberately avoid thinking about the special, unique features of this project, and just ask how long it took to finish broadly similar projects in the past.—Updated on 2024-04-03 15:18:28
    • This is finding an objective measurement to base predictions.
  • A quick point: “et” is a complete Latin word meaning “and”. Just like “and”, it doesn’t need a period after it, as it is not an abbreviation. Thus, Buehler et. al. (2002)should be changed to Buehler et al. (2002)—Updated on 2024-04-03 15:23:30